I came across some blogs that discuss spreads. Apparently, they have means to derive some probability of where the stock price will be at Options expiration. Interesting! So I spent some time to research the internet to find some of these tools.

And I came across the following resources which I like to share. Simply Options Trading shared 4 of the websites where one can find Options Probability Calculators. You can also find 2 books there which mention about such calculators.

Thought I would just add on to Simply Options Trading’s list of Probability Calculators.

Optionistics
The Options calculator computes the probability that the stock would end up below the lower strike price or the higher strike price based on lognormal distribution at a predefined date in the future. Besides providing an Options Calculator, there is also the more common Options Calculator. Then there is the Strategy Calculator to plot profit/loss graphs for different combinations of Options legs. Do also check out the stock screeners for different Options strategies such as Iron Condors or Butterfly. For those into Options Open Interest, there are also various screens pertaining to changes in Options Open Interest for the various stocks. A good reportoire of tools all for free (at least for now!).

Optionsrez
A simple website with a probability calculator is simple to use and understand.

I keep reminding myself that no matter which stock probability calculator I choose to use, these calculators are based on mathematically models. The market will not be influenced by them! They provide another means for deciding between different Option strategies, when there are more than one to choose from.

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