The US Presidential Election will be held on Nov 2008. Well, truth has it that only one recession of 15 have ever began in a pre-election year (Source: Bloomberg interview). To add on to that, the Dow rose in 20 pre-election years of the last 24 election cycles. The Dow rose in 16 election years of the last 24 election cycles. The table below shows how the Dow performed during election years. Let me add the following line to update the data for 2004:
Bush (R) 2004 +3%
This will make Dow rose in 17 election years of the last 25 election cycles. A 70% probability.
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