“This was also from Dr Elder and Tom. This is really intriguing to me. I am still trying to figure out how to determine the “right” entry.”

he is telling you not to be afraid to make mistake.

try and try til you get the right entry point and go with the trend.

“Fade false breakouts”

you also must learn to fade the fade the false break-out.

well come back, i’m now on “auto-pilot”, hence free again , thanks to the outragious bull market (stock market) i’ve ever seen.

it blow my minds off but it also blow up my equity size.

“I got this from Tom during his course. But he can’t really answer me on what makes him decide that he is going it.”

simple,

as long as you are riding the trend, it is a matter of money and risk management.

i’m not advising anyone to go long the stock market or stock index futures (neither to go short), but the market will continue to surprise us as it has done since the begining of time.

you better be prepared (the surprises) if you want to be a trader.

i certainly will not be surprise if the market (STI index) break the all time high at around 3,900 in no time at all.

but at the meantime, i’ll let “him” do whatever “he” wants to do.

oh, and shopping with my wife of course.

“Do note that when people talk about “professionals”, you may want to find out more. Professional traders can be pit traders, institutional traders, bank traders, full-time retail traders etc”

there is only one term for “professional” trader, if you ask me, that is

he or she is trading his own money (may be together with others), otherwise he is just an employee or a broker or both.

“Incidentally, I attended 2 trading courses conducted by professional traders recently”

?? why are you still attaining trading courses?

hasn’t they keep repeating themselves, and i’ve to repeat myself again and again?

there are many great books that you can refer to (that are also repeating themselves) to get the same information that you need. and they cost a lot cheaper.

jmot,

you got to start acting like a “professional” trader too and not just a student!

ya you heard me right, a professional trader, even though you does not have vast experience that others do.

you got to be both a trader (professional) and a student.

you got to teach the market (other traders) how to trade (your system) while at the same time be prepare to learn from the market if you are wrong.

the professional traders are as vulnerable as you are, and they do not have a single clue way the market is going, as you are.

if you come across any person who say thing that are contradicting,

today say bull, next moment say bear

today trend following, tomorrow contrarian. etc

this person is either an idiot or a good trader.

Ray Barros ?

the technician? whom appear on CNBC?

as a trend follower, he got all his signal wrong at the bottom of the market!

i knew cos i watched his comments.

but one never know whether he fade his own signal or did he even trade at all.

by now, he should be laughing his way to the bank.

Quote:
[You said “Dr Elder said he can tell if a trader is good or not by looking at his records.” I totally agree with you. My track record is posted in the “Performance” page of my website.]

Correct me if I’m wrong..but I think what Dr Elder meant in this case is not so much just merely looking at the trade performance records and then conclude whether a trader is good or bad (ie. if you make profits then you are a good trader if not..then you’re bad) … but rather what he meant is that he can tell the type of trader by looking at the quality of a trader’s record keeping details…the type of information a trader kept in his journal….the details..their usefulness in helping the trader to review all his previous trades as this will help him to follow consistently what is done well and discard those trading mistakes or behaviour that are undesirable.

most importantly, the records tells the trader exactly where he is right now in relation to the market.

by the way, where is our host jmot?

we are like chating in his house but he’s not in…

but not from the trading standpoint thought.

forex educator is like an answering machine :

i don’t care what you guys say, just come into my trading room please.

just kidding.

i’m convinced your records are true. but they are all in absolute terms. (in dollars or pips or who knows what)

it does not indicate in % gain/loss in relation to total equity size, and most importantly, the leverage employed in relation to risk management in individual trade and total positions exposure. (sorry for my poor english)

i can’t tell if you are doing just fine or not base on your data.

but imagine you have long the AUD say from 0.7000 til now, leverage up when the trend go with tide risk control, you will be laughing your way to the bank too.

AUD, like NASA lunching their rocket, have no intention to change its course just yet.

My performance are in pips. For each trade, I will not risk more than 2% of my capital.

Yes AUDUSD is going higher. I had sent out this trade email to my students today:
Buy AUDUSD at 0.9296
Stop level at 0.9210
Target level at 0.9374

“For each trade, I will not risk more than 2% of my capital.”

sound great.

you have any strategy that will signal a change in trend, eg when USD start to move higher?

i ask this question becos i’m a bad trend follower. i have a rule to do just that (trend following) but my trading system really need to improve, especially in a run away market.

just beware of the negative psychology impact on your mind, especially when you continue to win.

jmot, you are a currency trader, any opinion on the yen trade??

japan economic is in deflation for almost 20 years!

i think the worst for them is over.

they will recover with the help of a weaker yen and increase domestic spending.

that’s my assumption.

my timing (entry point) might be out, so don’t follow.

Coconut, Can Jap flood the market better than the US govt. Rather JPY against other currencies than USD.

i’m talking about years down the road. if you are trading short term, forget about all being said.

i gave a last word on japan

japan had been consumed by his own success story in the 70’s and 80’s.

through the 90’s til now, if its not for the world economic expansion, they will be totally crash.

they were making the same mistake as in world war 2, this recent crises is like the atomic bomb that hit them again economically speaking.

they will rise from the ashes.

i have many story to tell,

i’ve seen with my own eyes, a competence trader (singaporean) who loss millions trading cotton future, another great market to trade in.

he got his losing position locked limit-up for a very long time (i forgot how many days)

i’ve seen another trader loss $200,000 in less than a second, trading S&P futures, ends up a negative equity in his account!

Hi coconut, I am interested in how you size your position for such long term trades. Can share?

i do share the “frastration”, but don’t expect government to spoon feed us all the time.

if there is a demand, than someone will provide it, thats how market works.

first, this “idea” was originated when the current crises hit us a year ago.

becos of my commitment to the stock market, i have no money left to do the trade. (without using leverage)

most importantly, like i said, most financial instrument are in a melting pot.

buying stocks is as good as shorting the yen.

now that i can release some funds out, i’ll do the trade. it just the continue story of the recovery or inflationary trade.

i know,

where the fuck is my stop loss?

i don’t have one! i don’t need one! (i’m starting very small, very very small)

i do have an idea where the trend might change thought.

to conclude,

you have to start small so as not to put yourself in a difficult position. (my estimate loss will be less than 1%)

you also have to be aggreesive when market allow you to do so. (pyramid) you will never know when that will happen.

i’m (you should) not thinking of how much i’m going to win at all. not a bit. just focus on how much you can lose.

to me, i care about my loss but i don’t care a single bit about my profit! (i never like to count them, but for money management, i have to do it)

hence, you can say that i don’t trade for money, but for survival.

so jmot, forget about everything!

just concerntrate on learning how to ride the trend, for now.

even at the cost of losing your capital. its worth it.

actually, i don’t think it was a good trade.

the money can be used in a more profitable way.

but that account was meant for my wife.

jmot, i’ll do you another favor,

if you have any extra cash, or CPF or investment funds or whatever,

must be for investment and long term, not for speculation!

go and invest in the S’pore reits (real estate investment trust) or high yield stocks traded in the SGX.

i think we are going to have a low interest enviroment for a long time.

however, buy them at your own risk!

the other way to learn trading is to post your actual trade done (with real money traded).

your (determination of) entry,
your cut loss point and your exit point. with explaination of how and why it was done in detail.

single contract will do.

no need to post the results, there are not important (just yet). just showing off. (haha, i think i did that too)

i am sure it will attract lots of comments.

even there are none, your will be able to pick up yourself the mistake that you make as times goes by.

rather than keep posting all the useless trading courses available.

i’m done. (i got to trade and write this at the same time you know!)

Source : Sunday Times – 13 Dec 2009 :

” If you want to invest in property but cannot bear the idea of borrowing hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy that fancy condominium unit or going through the hassle of being a landlord, real estate investment trusts (Reits) might be worth considering.

Reit prices have risen this year, but they are still worth a look as they offer investors a relatively liquid way to gain exposure to property, and in various sectors and markets too.

Potential investors, however, have to do their homework and tread cautiously.

Reits have survived the credit market squeeze triggered by the subprime crisis.

MacarthurCook Industrial Reit, for instance, recently managed to get shareholders to approve its recapitalisation plan to save itself. It has huge debts due by the end of the year and would have had to be liquidated had the plan been rejected.

Its plan includes a rights issue which diluted its share price.

A recent OCBC Research report on the Reit sector said that while the pressure on some fronts has eased two years on – credit markets have stabilised, for instance – the economic outlook and its impact on Reit income remains uncertain.

Reits collect rent from tenants of the properties they own and pay out most of it as dividends to unit holders. You can trade Reits on the stock exchange, just like with stocks.

The 20 Reits in Singapore own mainly shopping malls, office buildings, industrial buildings, serviced apartments and hotels.

Investors typically seek out Reits for their dividend yields.

At the recent launch of Barclays Wealth’s prospects for property survey, Mr Manpreet Gill, its strategist for Asia, said that Singapore has a well-positioned listed Reit sector. He added that it is useful for an investor to diversify his property exposure by investing in Reits, among other instruments.

Mr Roger Tan, vice-president of the research department of the Securities Investors Association of Singapore, noted that Reit prices have been recovering this year, but many are still far from the highs seen in 2007.

For example, CapitaMall Trust is currently trading at around $1.70 and offers a dividend yield of around 5.5 per cent, compared with its high of $3.50 in May 2007, which saw it offering investors a yield of just 2.8 per cent, he said.

Another example is Suntec Reit, which is trading at around $1.28 and offering an annualised yield of close to 9 per cent, compared with its high of $2.10 in June 2007, when it offered investors a yield of only around 4 per cent.

Their price movements can be volatile, but Reits are considered a fairly safe haven in the long term, said DMG & Partners Securities analyst Jonathan Ng.

‘They are generally well managed by professional managers and you don’t have to worry about them going under.’

Unlike holding a physical property – which you may have problems unloading when the market turns sour – you have more liquidity when it comes to Reits, Mr Ng added.

OCBC has ‘buy’ calls on Mapletree Logistics Trust, Ascott Residence Trust and Suntec Reit, while Mr Ng likes CDL Hospitality Trusts. ‘The yield is not high now, but it’s a momentum play. There’s a growth story,’ he said of the trust.

He is forecasting a 6.5 per cent yield next year, and 7.4 per cent the following year.

He thinks the hospitality sector is the one to watch next year because the opening of the integrated resorts will give a big boost to tourist arrivals.

Mr Ng’s advice: ‘Pick a sector you know that has a strong sponsor and organic growth. For those looking to hold long-term, it is better to stick with the branded ones.’

Reits will eventually have debt due for refinancing. The CapitaLand and Ascendas sponsored Reits have good relationships with the banks, so it is not difficult for them to get debt financing, he explained.

Short-term investors, however, may want to buy the higher-yielding Reits, he said.

Reits can have high yields for two reasons. One, if the Reit is poorly managed, investors will value it at a lower price, causing yields to increase temporarily, said Mr Tan.

Two, if the Reit is unfamiliar to investors, its price will be a poor reflection of the Reit’s true value.

The sector the Reit is in is also key. The office sector, for instance, is still seeing falling rents and rising vacancy.

When it comes to Reits, it is important to assess the quality and potential of the underlying assets, and the management’s ability to extract those values in the long run, advised Mr Tan. When prices of Reits change, they usually reflect the optimism or pessimism of investors over these factors, he said.

Next year, investors should watch out for key risks which, according to OCBC Research, include a rise in interest rates, a double-dip recession and the threat of a new asset bubble.

‘Rising interest rates and inflation rates can hurt the value of a Reit because they erode the value of the cash flow that an investor receives from it,’ said Mr Tan.

However, while the investor may suffer in the short term, a good Reit can add value to his portfolio in the long run, he added. ”

for your information only.

again my example,

i bought my properties few years back thinking it will be a long term investment (it turns out to be a good one indeed), may be up until i’m dead.

never did i expect my investment was cut short “thanks” to the financial melt down.

i bought all the shares i can carry, trading actively in the stock market.

i didn’t expect the market to recover that fast, so much so that i’m thinking it might go on and on, it may turns out to be a long term investment, who knows.

i’ll never know when my trading start and my investment end.

perhaps the “short yen” will turn out to be an investment. i really don’t know.

so jmot,

there is no single time frame that you should adopt in your trading.

it should, like the universe, be flexible (can be pull long or short) and chaotic.

start it small and streach it long and back again.

winner or loser, we are all part of the game.

you got to know the difference, (there is no other way)

not by looking at the profit or loss,

if you did that, before you know it, you have loss everything.

it got to be something else.

i don’t have others but my own example to illustrate.

at my lowest point in my trading life in the 90’s, i got to go back to work full time (i hated it)

i got paid $6,500 a month ++

i have since sold my flat and rent one. (it make sense cos we have a property collapes)

i had just screw up half a million in trading and another half in business venture. (just short being a bankrupt)

when i decided to give another try, not only i got to give up my full time, my wife have to go back to work and support the whole family.

my children were still very young. and i have very little money left.

but i vow not to use leverage again.

i’m not trying to sell myself, no body knows me here.

you can’t just walk into the market and buy this and sell that and thinking you are going to make a lot of money.

behind every “success” story, there are many sacrefies.

you certainly cannot work full time and expect to trade successfully.

it (trading) should be and has to be your way of life with total commitment.

Can’t really say I sacrifice a lot. Beside spending money to attend courses, buy books and committing the remaining of my time (other then family time and day job time) to trading and learning how to trade…

The REITS article also caught my attention after seeing you mention on my blog =P

by now, you should also notice i’m in the market forever, like stuck in the market, just like you are stuck in this world.

hence ” like it or not, we are all born a trader”

even you don’t trade or invest, your money will become smaller and you actually getting poorer. you or me, actually have no choice.

for the majority, they have to work just to catch up, and many are left behind. they have no choice too.

“I really wonder how to achieve success with this unstructureness and unpredictability.”

unstructureness and unpredictability. is exactly how i define the market as well!!

and i think, only think, that i had actually align my trading system to that of the market. which is also unstructure and unpredictable.

my “trading system”, as you should know if you re-read my comments, is a 2 dimension system (not too complicate if you understand it). like a wing of a bird, but both side are not the same. they work in an opposite direction.

my shares trading, however have three, i’d invented one early this year. (this one i’ll not explain)

go to this site if you need more info on s’pore reits

http://sreit.blogspot.com/

i must say that it certainly have caught a lot of attention lately, do becareful.

personally, i have the following reits :

Ascendasriet

SuntecReit

Capital Commercial trust.

Starhill global

remember, you are buying the units (unitholder),

you becomes the land owner so to speak. don’t jump in and out of the market.

land owner don’t sell their “land” so often.

“Can’t really say I sacrifice a lot. Beside spending money to attend courses, buy books and committing the remaining of my time (other then family time and day job time) to trading and learning how to trade…”

yes, i understand your problem.

thats depend on how bad you wanted to be a trader.

some fool like me will go all the way out to do it, you can says that i’m very irresponsible towards my family, what happen if i fail? what will i do next?

going back to another job that will last for only a few months?

it really didn’t cross my mind at all. but my wife had prepared for the worst. she is truely supporting me all the way.

to be true, i did want it very badly.

i can easily become a adited gambler. it is just a fine line in between.

when you sees me trading, it looks like descretionery, but actually, it is not, not in my mind.

i think i know how i will do in any market condition. i also look at charts and pattern, and yes technical indicator like moving averages.

if i just trade base on the above, which is only half of the total system, i’ll be losing money in the long run, i’m very sure.

it is always my trend following system, my so call robatic, or automated trading system that will save me from losing.

i have them, contrarian and trend following both inside my trading system in one piece.

so,

cut your losses small

ride your winners long

for me, there is no other way for trading.

and to you jmot, you might think well its ok, i got other market to trade in.

or worst, take your profit and spend it!

it is absolutely not ok for me.

i have lots of time when i’m trading, i’m not in any hurry to make any money.
i’ll let the time and the money work for me.

some financial advise (money management)

whether in trading or in personal financing, you have to get them orderly. like the one you say “keep good records”. thats very basic.

it apply to your personal finance too. where are your money? where did you put them? how you allocate them? or do you even have it at all?

what are the most attractive and lease attractive ones? if you have a good records, you will able to move them at ease.

just like trading, moving your money towards the most attractive trade or investment.

your money should also be flexible, able to move like water (under your sole control). not when you need them (say for investment) then would you come searching for them.

haha, like my dear wife!

she is fortunate that i’m controlling the money. you will be sock if you know just how many credit cards she has!

on a more personal note, i’ll tell you why i’m here. (i’ll like to be private but there isn’t many traders here, i guess its ok)

i’m not here to promote myself, or self praise or learn or teach. (may be a little but that’s not the main point). i can do it else where if i want to.

you must be thinking, this fucking coconuts must be the most happy guy around having make millions in the stock market.

i’ll tell you it isn’t the case!

yes, i make a few millions, but the truth is, i’m glate but also frastrated.

if you trade $100,000 and make 10,000, or 50,000,or 100,000, you will be very happy to take profit, like most of them i know.

me too, i can’t stand it also. surprise? a few millions to carry! and can’t take profit! can you imagine that?

unless you are doing what i did, you will never understand how i feel, the conflicting, and contridicting nature of trading.

but i have no choice, i have to decide (i already did) whether i want to make money in the long run or not. so i stay put.

i think jesse livermore had mention before, it is the hardest thing he learn in trading, and i think it is even harder for me.

i think i’m the one who truely is looking for someone to hold hand with, dispite the many years experience i have.

it sound strange isn’t it, but its true.

many things that i say here, the primary target is myself, not you jmot.

if you are truely in trading, you will understand. otherwise you can’t. so don’t be miss understand that the successful traders are the happy lot. it certainly not the case.

from the very start of my position up until now.

you didn’t know how i appreciate it don’t you??

again, i can’t teach you how i trade, but i can certainly assist you with your own trading.

shoot me all your question if you like.

either way, you have only less than 1% chance of winning big.

in the long run of course.

i wonder what is every body busy at?

beside whose who need to work full time.

ya, keep that humor, it’s good for trading.

haha.

too tired is not an excuse, better write something today.

the best way to learn trading is through learning one’s weakness and not strength.

it is this (these) weaknesses that got the trader (like me) into trouble.

in life, we usually can get away with it.

but in trading, we can’t.

if you don’t confront your weakness when trading, the market will do it for you.

so the trader would have to decide either to do it himself or to let the market do it for him.

there is no other way. the end.

why traders need to attend trading courses, i don’t know.

the best teacher out there is yourself.

the best courses out there is time.

sure

unfortunately, most people (traders) do not want to help themselves.

the first problem which prevent you from improving is that you keep doing (trading) the same thing over and over again.

of cos you would not want to agreed with that, neither do i for a long time.

until you and i agreed that we have a real problem, then our trading will start to improve. i say we mean ourselves, only ourselves.

so what’s your problem? (can’t make money is not a problem)

for those who inspired to be a trader of course.